Cleaner cars . . . too late?

Yesterday was a good day for the environment. Tomorrow may not be.

NY Times, 1/26/09: “President Obama directed federal regulators . . . to move swiftly on an application by California and 13 other states to set strict limits on greenhouse gases from cars and trucks. He also ordered the Transportation Department to begin drawing up rules imposing higher fuel-economy standards on cars and light trucks.”

The Bush administration stonewalled California’s efforts since 2002 to further limit pollution and they failed to create regulations to implement a 2007 Department of Transportation law requiring a 40 percent improvement in gas mileage for autos and light trucks by 2020. At last a change.

Don’t feel bad for the US auto industry. “They knew this was coming,” pointed out Ray LaHood, the new Secretary of Transportation and former Republican congressman from Illinois. And, autos manufactured by these same companies for the European market can already do much of the job.

So much for the good news. According to an NPR report based on a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “Turning off the carbon dioxide emissions won’t stop global warming . . . Climate change is essentially irreversible . . . The global thermostat can’t be turned down quickly once it’s been turned up . . .” We’re talking thousands of years. Now I’m really depressed.

What should be done? Susan Solomon, one of the study’s authors, suggests that if the problem is irreversible, that gives us more reason to act now, just as the new administration is doing.

But, why do we need to wait until 2020 for the 40 percent fuel economy gain? So much of the needed technology has been in development since I started working on renewable energy in the early 80’s. Step on the accelerator.

– Posted by Tom Witkin

Inelasticity, SUVs and Idling

We moved to our Boston suburb in large part because of the quality of the schools, lots of woods, and location. As you can probably guess, there are a lot of well-healed families here (though perhaps disproportionately fewer now, given the number who work in the financial sector). But, there are some things that disturb me – increasingly so – about where we live. First is that this affluent community expects town services – especially education – to maintain a high level; but these same people are unwilling to pay the relatively small marginal cost (because of our tax situation) that is required. Recent municipal votes announced this loudly.

That leads directly to my next gripe: If you look at any parking lot in town, you could believe that we’re actually a giant, upscale SUV dealership. By now you should know my view of these gas guzzlers from a sustainability standpoint.

But I’m seeing something more onerous than the mere existence of these vehicles. At the town’s several schools, legions of these Abrams Tank wannabes line up each day as much as twenty minutes before dismissal so they can be near the head of the line. And, many sit there with the engine running for the duration. Just imagine their carbon footprint; the greenhouse gases emitted for no good reason. Add that to the waste of fuel. And, no, this behavior, from what I observed, didn’t abate when gasoline topped $4.00 a gallon. We are an inelastic town.

The aphorism “think globally, act locally” applies here. Yes, it’s cold outside in New England. Folks, your electrically heated seats and steering wheels will work off the battery, without the engine running. If not, try dressing more warmly, as you would if you walked your dog in the cold.

But, there may be a partial solution to both this budget and environmental problem: Massachusetts has an “Anti-Idling” law. Vehicles are not allowed to idle for more than five minutes except for specific reasons (waiting on line for your child isn’t one of them). Fines can be levied up to $100 for the first offense and up to $500 for each succeeding offense. Enforce it.

Now let’s see how inelastic you are.

– Posted by Tom Witkin

It’s hard driving green

We just bought a new car. It was a frustrating experience, but not for the usual reasons. We got a good deal, the color wasn’t an issue, and the salesperson seemed a decent guy. The car is a manual Hyundai Sonata sedan with an EPA rating of 22 City / 32 highway. It’s highly rated and appears to be a good buy, but it isn’t nearly as green as I would have liked.

Here was our problem: small cars like the Toyota Prius, Honda Civic (hybrid or not) and Hyundai Elantra get excellent mileage, but just don’t have enough rear seat leg room for our two growing teenagers. So, not an option. The car that really fits my needs (and more visceral wants) is the VW Jetta TDI, a turbocharged diesel that gets terrific mileage. Yes, diesel fuel is expensive at the moment compared to gasoline, but great fuel economy offsets part of that. And, when gas prices go up, diesel gets more attractive. As someone who cares about sustainability, I am willing to pay somewhat more for fuel if I can generate less carbon dioxide.

Ultimately, what knocked the Jetta out of the box was price; about $8,000 more than the Sonata, even taking into account the $1300 Federal tax credit for clean-burning diesels. There weren’t viable alternatives: VW, BMW and Mercedes produce the only diesel cars available today in the US. And, the Toyota Camry hybrid is also relatively expensive and doesn’t get mileage that much better than its conventional sibling.

Why don’t we have more choices? According to a Forbes article in the fall, “Between now and 2011, Acura, Nissan, Hyundai and Kia all plan to launch clean-diesel cars of their own.” Does it have to take that long? Estimates from auto experts are that 50-60% of new cars sold in Europe are diesels. I believe it; every car I’ve rented there over the past six years has been a diesel, many of them Fords, GMs and Toyotas. The engineering changes needed to accommodate minor differences in US-produced ultra low sulfur diesel can’t be that daunting.

The issue of high-priced diesel fuel in the US remains an issue, but one that should resolve. If gas prices do go back up, the economy advantage of a diesel will skew the cost delta back toward the diesel. As people start to buy and drive more diesels, the oil companies will certainly increase supply, helping to drive down prices, at least from that side of the supply and demand equation. And, today, a relatively low percentage of “gas stations,” at least where I live in the northeast, offer diesel, so there’s little price competition between outlets. Diesel drivers, I suspect, are just happy to find their fuel. That should change, too, as the number of diesel-powered vehicles goes up.

We’re seeing an emerging market thirst for cars with better mileage. Part of GM, Ford and Chrysler’s travails stem from their years of ramping up production of gas guzzlers. Giving US consumers access to what’s been available in Europe for years would be one expedient answer to the problems of the US auto industry. Maybe that should be a condition of any bailout package.

– Posted by Tom Witkin